'IMF targets will be irrelevant by 2028' - Bright Simons warns against programme exit

Ghana's possible early exit from the IMF program is causing concern. Bright Simons, Vice President of IMANI Africa, shared his views on Joy News’ PM Express Business Edition on April 24. He believes the government's focus is more on political optics than real substance. Simons warned that Ghana might abandon crucial reforms.

He stated, “IMF will do a victory lap dance. The government will join them.” He predicts that by 2028, Ghana may not meet its targets. “The question then becomes: do we need the programme to meet the targets?” he asked.

Simons thinks Ghana treats IMF deals as simple transactions instead of strategic reforms. He emphasized that key benchmarks like debt-to-GDP ratios remain important. However, he fears these targets may lose relevance over time due to political cycles.

He criticized both the government and the IMF for focusing on messaging rather than measurable outcomes. “The IMF itself has said, ‘Look, the signalling is not pretty,’” he noted. He believes this prioritization benefits the government.

Simons compared Ghana’s approach to other countries like Kenya and Nigeria. Kenya ended its program early and raised $1.5 billion from Gulf nations. “That mindset is going to gain ground in many places,” he said.

Nigeria also avoided an IMF deal despite facing internal challenges. Simons remarked, “They made the call,” highlighting their decision-making independence.

He questioned whether the IMF truly wants Ghana to achieve its goals after exiting the program. If so, it should have supported extending their agreement, he argued.

Instead, Simons suggested that the government hopes to regain market access without IMF oversight. “If they don’t do the IMF programme because they think they can get market access… those things just fade away,” he warned.

Bright Simons expressed concern about leaving the program too soon for political reasons. He feels discussions about staying or leaving are becoming irrelevant now.

“The real issue is whether we are serious about structural reform or just looking for a good story to tell investors,” he concluded.