Cedi likely to stabilise between GHS11 or GHS12 by end of year – Kuagbedzi

Nelson Cudjoe Kuagbedzi, Head of Finance at UMB Capital, has made a prediction. He believes the Ghanaian Cedi will stabilize between GHS11 and GHS12 against the U.S. dollar by the end of 2025. This contrasts with forecasts from Fitch and other analysts, who expect a return to GHS15.

From January to late May 2025, the Cedi appreciated significantly. It rose from about GHS15.00 to GHS10.20 per USD, marking a gain of around 32%. On June 2, 2025, during the Citi Breakfast Show, Kuagbedzi discussed this trend.

He noted that while the Cedi has strengthened recently, this trend won't last forever. The government has not made major expenditures yet, which has eased pressure on the currency. He stated that unless large-scale spending resumes, the Cedi should remain stable within GHS11 to GHS12.

Kuagbedzi disagreed with Fitch's projection of stagnation at GHS15 by year-end. He explained that government efforts are focused on building reserves for foreign exchange demand. Currently, they have not started paying out debts because these are still under audit.

He emphasized that once expenditures begin again, it could affect the currency's stability. However, he does not expect it to exceed GHS12 by year-end. The government is currently following a contractionary economic policy and is not initiating major projects.

This approach allows for sufficient reserves at the Bank of Ghana. Once spending starts again, he anticipates fluctuations in the Cedi's value but expects it to stabilize within GHS11 by year's end.

In related news, Ghana is awaiting a $370 million IMF tranche to boost its reserves.