EU scientists warn against using foreign carbon credits to meet climate targets

The European Union's top scientific advisors warn against relying on international carbon credits. They believe the EU should focus on cutting emissions within Europe.

Scientists and climate activists argue that using carbon credits is risky. This strategy could undermine local climate projects and weaken global efforts.

Under a UN-supported agreement from COP29, countries can buy carbon credits. These allow one country to fund emission cuts in another country. Supporters claim this method is cheaper and helps poorer nations.

However, critics say it diverts funds from essential local investments. The ESABCC, an independent advisory body, has never spoken out so strongly before. In a 60-page report, they warned against using international carbon credits for climate targets.

The report states that using these credits could harm Europe's economy. It may divert money from infrastructure, skills, and innovation investments. While these credits seem cost-effective globally, they carry serious risks like "leakage." This means emissions might just move elsewhere instead of being reduced.

The Advisory Board does not support using international carbon credits for the 2040 climate goal. Experts emphasize the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90–95% below 1990 levels by 2040.

Despite recent signs of lower ambitions from leaders, scientists urge strong action at home. They also advocate for fair support to other countries without substituting domestic efforts.

The report suggests high-quality international projects could help after meeting local goals. The EU aims for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 under the European Climate Law.

To achieve this goal, the law sets a target of reducing emissions by 55% by 2030. The EU has enacted many new laws to support this aim. Emissions dropped by 9% in 2023—the largest drop ever seen in Europe.

The European Climate Law requires setting another target for 2040 to stay on track for 2050. In 2023, the Advisory Board recommended a reduction of 90–95% compared to 1990 levels by then.

In 2024, the European Commission backed this recommendation with its own studies. A formal proposal will be made this year to include the target in law.

Achieving a reduction of 90–95% domestically is feasible according to experts. Lower targets would jeopardize progress toward climate neutrality and sustainability during geopolitical uncertainty.

To ensure effective carbon removals aid climate goals without slowing emission cuts, three separate targets are advised for 2040: total emission cuts, permanent removals, and temporary removals.

Domestic carbon removals can balance out unavoidable emissions while supporting sustainable business models post-2050. Separate targets will prevent delays in both emission reductions and removal efforts.

These targets should be included in future laws as part of a broader EU plan for carbon removal. The framework must ensure high-quality removals while restoring natural land sinks and encouraging new technologies.