Ghana not ready to exit IMF in 2025 – Prof. Bokpin

Economist and finance professor Godfred Alufar Bokpin has raised concerns about Ghana's potential exit from its IMF program in late 2025. He warns that the country may not be ready to operate independently without support.

Professor Bokpin shared his views on the Joy FM Super Morning Show today, May 27. He believes exiting the program by December 2025 would be premature. He noted that while the government aims for a policy support instrument, true independence is preferred.

Ghana has sought IMF assistance 17 times since independence. Previous premature exits have often led to quick relapses into economic trouble.

Professor Bokpin emphasized that Ghana is more accountable under IMF supervision. There is greater transparency and collaboration when the country works with the IMF compared to operating alone.

He expressed concern over discrepancies in Ghana's fiscal reporting. The two major political parties use different formulas for their own benefit. This inconsistency makes it hard to identify problems and propose solutions.

In early 2022, he pointed out that the Bank of Ghana was monetizing debt by printing more cedis. Initially, the central bank denied this claim. However, when the IMF applied its Debt Sustainability Framework, it revealed a debt-to-GDP ratio of 109%. Before this, Ghana reported less than 80%.

While Professor Bokpin acknowledged some economic improvements, he noted ongoing institutional weaknesses. He questioned whether Ghana has developed sufficient institutional maturity over time.

He stated that without accountability and discipline, progress will be difficult. "Can we demonstrate operational independence of a Fiscal Council?" he asked.

Some experts suggest maintaining some form of IMF engagement beyond 2025. They recommend strengthening domestic fiscal oversight institutions as well.

Other proposals include implementing binding fiscal rules with enforcement mechanisms and improving transparency in debt reporting and monetary operations.

Economists warn that without discipline, Ghana risks repeating its boom-bust cycle. This could lead to returning to the IMF sooner than expected.