Top cocoa producer Ivory Coast to slash exports from smaller upcoming crop, sources say

Ivory Coast plans to reduce cocoa sales on international markets. This change comes as the country faces a second year of declining output.

Regulatory sources say the contract sales limit will drop to 1.3 million metric tons. This is down from the usual 1.7 million tons for the 2025/26 cocoa season. The decline is due to climate change, aging plantations, and plant diseases.

Sources from Ivory Coast's Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) indicate that two consecutive production declines suggest a structural trend, not just a cyclical fall.

Typically, about 70% to 80% of cocoa production is sold in advance as "contract" sales. In the 2022/2023 season, these sales totaled around 1.7 million tons when production was 2.3 million tons.

However, output fell to about 1.75 million tons in the following season. It is estimated that production will remain at a similar level for the upcoming season ending this month.

An analysis of recent data raises concerns about returning to average production levels soon. The average main crop yields around 1.7 million tons, while mid-crop yields about half a million.

A CCC official stated that limiting contract sales to 1.3 million tons is more realistic for the next main crop season. They want to avoid risks associated with overestimating production.

Cocoa farmers and exporters report that swollen shoot disease is spreading rapidly across all cocoa-producing regions in Ivory Coast. This viral disease has no treatment and affects nearly half of the country's cocoa fields.

In the long term, rejuvenating plantations with new seeds may help address these issues. Aging orchards account for about 70% of Ivory Coast's total cocoa farms and are more vulnerable to disease and climate change.

Irregular rainfall and drought have also negatively impacted cocoa production in recent years.

The weather between April and June will be crucial for assessing the next harvest. Two CCC sources noted that pod counting teams are reporting conditions similar to those in 2023 and 2024.

Currently, one pod counter mentioned that weather conditions are challenging for this season's mid-crop harvest.