World Bank cuts Ghana’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.9%

The World Bank has lowered Ghana’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.9%. This is below the government’s target of 4.4%. The new estimate comes from the April 2025 Africa’s Pulse report. It reflects a slight decrease from the previous estimate of 4.3%.

The World Bank cited ongoing inflation and external vulnerabilities as reasons for this downgrade. Despite this, they remain cautiously optimistic about Ghana's future. They project growth will rebound to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027.

The report also mentioned climate-related risks affecting cocoa production in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. Unpredictable weather patterns have disrupted these two major cocoa exporters. Climate events like floods and droughts are eroding national budgets across Africa by up to 9%. These events can cause economic setbacks between 2% and 5%.

On a positive note, Ghana shows early signs of recovery in 2025. High-frequency indicators, especially the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), indicate increased business activity. Ghana’s PMI rose from 47.9 in January to 50.6 in March, showing improved demand and renewed investor confidence.

The World Bank noted that business activity rebounded in Mozambique and Ghana in February 2025. The increase was driven by higher demand and new business engagements.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is expected to rise slightly from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025. Growth may accelerate further to 4.3% by 2026-2027. However, weak performances from Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola constrain overall growth.

Excluding these three economies, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by 4.6% in 2025, reaching up to 5.7% by 2027. Still, the World Bank warned of significant risks ahead due to global uncertainties, climate shocks, and fiscal constraints that threaten recovery across the continent.