Ethiopia's Untenable Red Sea Ambitions

Much has been said about PM Abiy's statements. These comments do not need repeating. However, we should consider the papers written by those close to Ethiopia's ruling party.

These writings have faced some challenges. I want to join others in calling for a return to sanity. The people of Eritrea and Ethiopia cannot afford another misadventure. Sadly, the Ethiopian regime has damaged trust, which is vital for partnership. Dangerous ambitions must end to build a respectful and prosperous relationship.

I will focus on the Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA). This institute is funded by Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. I will discuss articles by Blen Mamo Diriba, an IFA research associate. The IFA often reflects Ethiopian foreign policy thinking.

Blen attempts to justify the Prime Minister's schemes filled with disinformation and unfounded claims. Her writings suggest mysterious "strategic ambitions" from Ethiopia. The IFA produces articles and YouTube discussions that promote dangerous narratives through platforms like @HornDialogues and @HornReview.

Blen's tone has shifted from aggressive to more ambiguous language recently. Three main themes appear in her writings:

First, she discusses Ethiopia's struggle to accept Eritrea’s control over its ports. Eritrea has always been open to good-faith agreements regarding port use based on commercial norms.

Second, she highlights Ethiopia’s ambition for direct sea coast ownership for "strategic interests." This ambition seems to ignore international law provisions regarding sea access.

Third, she suggests a treaty with Eritrea overseen by questionable international institutions could mitigate potential failures in achieving these goals.

Overall, Abiy’s government views Red Sea coast ownership as essential for regional power dynamics.

In her April 7 article titled "Ethio-Eritrea Tension-A Volatile History that Never Truly Ended," Blen implies that conflict could allow Ethiopia to "regain" Assab port. She believes in Ethiopia’s military superiority despite ongoing internal conflicts and expects little international backlash.

Blen’s April 9 article sheds light on Ethiopia's strategic designs involving a pipeline project with UAE involvement. She notes that deteriorating diplomatic ties have made this project untenable but does not explain why these shifts occurred or if they were discussed among all parties involved.

Blen admits Abiy is responsible for worsening relations between the two countries but still blames Eritrea for obstructing Ethiopian ambitions without acknowledging Eritrea’s own rights and interests.

Ethiopia also declined Djibouti's offer of direct commercial port access in August 2024, suggesting their strategic priorities may be military rather than commercial in nature.

In her April 25 article, now deleted from the IFA website, Blen argued that legal access to Assab could be achieved through diplomacy and mutual prosperity. However, no special choreography is needed unless it implies port ownership aspirations.

She suggests that respecting Eritrean autonomy while seeking legal access is crucial but overlooks historical context regarding autonomy discussions between the USA and Eritrea during their independence struggle.

Blen proposes a bilateral treaty grounded in UNCLOS principles would affirm Ethiopia’s maritime rights without compromising Eritrean sovereignty but raises concerns about hidden agendas behind such proposals.

Her suggestion of joint administration by international bodies infringes on Eritrean sovereignty and contradicts previous dismissals of these institutions' influence in her earlier writings.

Ethiopian scholars like Blen are tasked with justifying unreasonable demands for control over Eritrean ports under the guise of cooperation while disregarding Eritrean sovereignty entirely.

The last point highlights Ethiopia's lack of respect for Eritrean independence and territorial rights. Why should any country expect another nation to relinquish its sovereignty?

Eritrea fought hard for its independence; it would be outrageous to expect otherwise now. Ultimately, it is Ethiopia that avoids cooperative engagement based on mutual respect for sovereignty rights.

In conclusion, Ethiopia continues promoting ideas aimed at gaining control over coastal areas unjustly. Scholars like Blen attempt to rationalize these unreasonable demands against established norms.

We hope rational thinking prevails among Ethiopian leaders and scholars alike because no one benefits from further conflict! If another war occurs due to miscalculations, history shows it will not favor them either!

Awet N'hafash!