Nigeria: Drivers of Conflict in Nigeria's Middle Belt Are Beyond Climate Change

Coordination and consistency in policy have been lacking in the Middle Belt region. The government has not properly defined the crisis amid new developments. Mixed narratives, sometimes one-sided, stem from poor understanding or misinformation. This makes finding effective solutions difficult. Despite efforts for peaceful coexistence, assaults continue from attackers who retreat into the bush.

Over the past decade, conflicts between communities have claimed many lives in Nigeria's Middle Belt. Millions have been displaced due to violence in states like Plateau and across the Sahel region. The causes of these conflicts are complex and varied. Ethnic and religious identities primarily drive the first layer of conflict.

The second layer involves tensions over land ownership and use. Farmers fear herders will take their land, while herders claim entitlement to it for their livelihood. The third layer includes organized crime and the spread of small arms among insurgents and bandits.

Climate change is a key factor intensifying these conflicts. Irregular rainfall patterns lead to droughts and deforestation, reducing resources like water and arable land. Herders are forced to search for grazing lands, often moving southward toward greener areas.

Competition for resources has increased tension between pastoralists and farmers. Historically, farmers are mainly Christians while pastoralists are mostly Muslims. This dynamic can give confrontations a religious aspect, though some analysts see this as oversimplified.

Lingering issues of indigene-settler relations contribute to ongoing conflicts. Indigenes reference ancestral origins when discussing land sold to Fulani settlers. Meanwhile, Fulani communities argue they have lived there long enough to deserve access to resources like land and water. These disputes often escalate tensions over land ownership.

Eyewitness accounts suggest attackers' motivations have shifted from seeking grazing lands to outright occupation of territories. They appear more organized and ruthless now, acting with impunity as if they are mercenaries hired for destruction.

Many settlers feel their Muslim beliefs should be protected amid rising distrust towards authorities perceived as favoring Hausa-Fulani dominance since colonial times. Predominantly Christian minority groups feel marginalized by power structures established in Northern Nigeria.

Recent attacks resemble organized acts of terrorism rather than mere resource disputes.

On Christmas Eve 2023, an alarming incident occurred in Plateau State. Hundreds of gunmen attacked over twenty communities in coordinated strikes across Bokkos and Barkin Ladi local government areas. They held residents under siege for about seven hours with guns and machetes, killing more than 150 people and destroying homes.

In another incident, attackers stormed Tse Azege and Innyiev communities in Benue State during Christmas festivities, resulting in at least 11 deaths. Recently, around 114 people were killed across Benue and Plateau states within just two weeks; reports indicate that about 3,000 individuals have died due to violent attacks in Plateau State alone.

Widespread complacency among security agencies has eroded public trust significantly. Many victims report that captured attackers face no punishment due to negligence by authorities. Some communities believe security forces are infiltrated or even act as extensions of Fulani militias.

Authorities often arrive only after harm is done to prevent reprisals against attackers instead of protecting victims.

Despite government efforts, gaps remain in policing that embolden attackers further still.
Calls for establishing state police have emerged but political leaders suggest self-defense instead.
This approach risks escalating chaos rather than resolving conflict effectively.
The government has struggled with mixed narratives regarding open grazing versus ranching policies.
Ongoing violence disrupts agricultural production leading to food inflation nationwide.
Seasonal responses fail to address root causes adequately.
Uche Igwe is a senior political economy analyst at the Polish Centre for African Studies in Wroclaw; he can be reached at [email protected].