South Sudan Retakes Opposition Stronghold, but Violence Is Set to Worsen

Crisis Group's Daniel Akech on Renewed Civil War in South Sudan

On April 19, the South Sudanese army recaptured Nasir. This town had been seized by opposition militia in early March. The recapture is a setback for the opposition amid rising civil war tensions.

The White Army, an ethnic Nuer militia, lost Nasir without resistance. This followed a major battle in Doma, near Ulang county. That battle resulted in heavy casualties, with hundreds reported dead on both sides.

The White Army has loose ties to Riek Machar. He is a former rebel leader and currently the first vice president. Meanwhile, Uganda's air force supports South Sudanese government forces against the rebels. President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda is a strong ally of President Salva Kiir.

It remains unclear if recapturing Nasir will end the conflict surge in Upper Nile. However, more violence seems likely. The White Army appears to have retreated to avoid further losses. More militias are mobilizing nearby, especially in Fangak area of Jonglei state.

Rising violence in Upper Nile has strained South Sudan's politics further. Long-time rivals Kiir and Machar previously caused civil war in 2013. They signed a coalition government agreement in 2018.

In late March, fighting escalated in Upper Nile. Kiir arrested key opposition figures during this time. He invited Ugandan military support and placed Machar under house arrest in Juba.

Kiir also launched new attacks on Machar's allies across the country. Additionally, the war in neighboring Sudan could worsen Upper Nile’s conflict. Kiir has loose ties to paramilitary Rapid Support Forces from Sudan. The Sudanese army might reconnect with Upper Nile opposition groups that acted as proxies before.