Explainer: Ghana’s cocoa export earnings triple in early 2025; what’s fueling the boom?

Ghana's cocoa export earnings have surged dramatically in 2025. Many are asking why this is happening.

Bank of Ghana data shows cocoa revenues for the first four months of 2025 reached $1.84 billion. This amount is more than triple the $579 million from the same period in 2024. Interestingly, this total exceeds Ghana’s cocoa earnings for the first eleven months of 2024.

So, what caused this surge?

Analysts point to several key factors behind the increase:

First, there has been a decline in smuggling. Improved farmgate prices discourage farmers from using unofficial routes. This change has increased volumes flowing through official export channels.

Second, efforts to clamp down on illegal mining (galamsey) have helped preserve cocoa farms. This preservation boosts potential production levels.

Experts had already projected this rise. The Ghana COCOBOD forecasts cocoa production for 2024/2025 at 700,000 metric tons (MT). This is a 32% increase over last year’s estimate of 531,000 MT.

However, it’s hard to attribute the surge solely to production increases. No official production data for 2025 has been released yet.

In the cocoa trade, there are two key markets:

The spot market sells cocoa for immediate delivery at current global prices.

The futures market sells cocoa for future delivery at pre-agreed prices based on previous averages.

Ghana traditionally trades through the futures market. Beans sold this year were priced based on last year’s average prices. This system offers stability; if prices fall, Ghana benefits from earlier higher prices. But if prices rise, Ghana misses out on those gains.

In 2024, global cocoa prices surged but Ghana had already sold its beans at lower prices from 2023. Consequently, Ghana did not benefit from high international prices that year and recorded low earnings instead.

What’s different in 2025?

This year, Ghana stands to benefit regardless of which market it uses:

If selling through futures contracts, last year's high global prices will boost earnings this year.

If using the spot market, current high market prices will also increase revenue.

In both scenarios, Ghana wins financially.

There are strong indications that Ghana may have shifted away from the futures market and become more active in the spot market this year. The reason? They could not secure their usual syndicated loans for cocoa purchases this season.

These loans typically finance forward buying of cocoa and support the futures system. Due to uncertainties around production capacity—driven by illegal mining and smuggling risks—lenders pulled back their support.

As a result, Ghana has relied more on the spot market where payment is faster and prices are high. JoyNews reports that Ghana is now very active in spot market sales.