From crisis to coordination: Leveraging remote sensing and AI to manage IDPs and refugees in West Africa

Nigeria has over 3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) and more than 85,000 refugees as of 2023, according to UNHCR.

Burkina Faso faces a serious crisis with 2 million displaced due to insecurity and violence, as reported by IOM in 2024. These displacements are not just humanitarian issues; they have significant economic impacts.

IDPs and refugees depend heavily on aid and informal support. This reliance puts pressure on public infrastructure like health, education, food, and housing. Displacement undermines development progress in these areas.

The World Bank estimates that forcibly displaced populations in Sub-Saharan Africa cause a GDP loss of 2-3% annually. This is due to disrupted productivity, weakened labor markets, and strained public finances.

The Cost of Inaction

West Africa's displacement crisis also reflects governance failures. ECOWAS established the Free Movement Protocol in 1979 and ratified the Kampala Convention in 2009. However, national implementation remains inconsistent.

Countries like Nigeria, Ghana, Mali, and Niger struggle with policy execution challenges. Issues include poor coordination, inadequate funding, and security lapses. These factors leave displaced populations vulnerable to radicalization or trafficking.

Short-term aid models dominate the response to displacement crises. Humanitarian funding across the region fell by 16% in 2023 while needs continue to rise. Without long-term integration frameworks, West African countries miss opportunities for economic contributions from displaced populations.

Geospatial Intelligence: A Missing Link in Migration Management

West Africa must adopt geospatial technology and artificial intelligence (AI). This shift can help move from reactive aid models to proactive governance.

Early Warning and Risk Mapping:
Remote sensing can forecast flooding or conflict hotspots. This helps policymakers anticipate displacement needs ahead of time. For example, during the 2022 floods in Nigeria and Benin Republic, lack of planning led to over 1.4 million people being displaced.

Camp Planning and Resource Allocation:
Geospatial data enables tracking of IDP settlements effectively. It ensures equitable distribution of services where needed most. In the Lake Chad Basin, IOM used GIS dashboards for this purpose—a strategy that should be expanded regionally.

Border Surveillance and Anti-Trafficking:
AI tools like thermal imaging drones enhance border monitoring capabilities. They help detect irregular migration and child trafficking along porous borders between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

Policy Simulation and Scenario Planning:
Governments can use migration data alongside economic models for better planning. AI analytics can project how refugee integration affects host economies or urban population shifts due to drought-induced displacement.

The Role of ECOWAS and National Governments

ECOWAS should coordinate a centralized data hub for monitoring displacement flows across member states. Public-private partnerships could enhance regional capacity through collaboration with AI startups or satellite companies.

Nigeria and Ghana must invest in national systems for tracking IDPs using digital registries or biometric IDs. Integrating migration variables into national planning is essential for effective management.

Financial Imperatives

Displacement poses not only humanitarian but also fiscal challenges. Proactive measures could reduce dependency on foreign aid while freeing up domestic budgets.

Providing skills training for displaced youth could unlock their participation in the labor force. Reducing insurgency risks through stability may minimize security expenditures as well.

Attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) from global ESG investors interested in resilient economies is another benefit of addressing this issue effectively.

A World Bank report from 2023 noted that countries investing in IDP integration saw a GDP increase of 7% over five years through improved labor productivity.

Conclusion: Toward a Resilient Migration Governance Framework

West Africa stands at a crucial juncture regarding its displacement crisis. Countries must prioritize evidence-based planning alongside geospatial innovation for sustainable funding solutions.

Combining geospatial technology with political will offers transformative potential when coordinated by ECOWAS.
Investing in people on the move is vital—not just for protection but also empowerment toward contributing meaningfully to our shared economic future.


About the Author:
Olusola Akanni is an expert in migration and environmental policy with over ten years' experience managing migration across West Africa.
He holds a Master's degree from the University of San Francisco's Migration Studies Program.
As a former officer with Nigeria Immigration Service, he brings firsthand knowledge about human mobility trends.