Ghana’s 450,000 barrels of light crude oil may only last 16 days

JoyNews Research estimates that 450,000 barrels of light crude oil arrived in Ghana on May 19, 2025. This supply is expected to last no more than 16 days. June 4, 2025, is a critical date for new fuel delivery. Without it, the country may face electricity generation shortfalls.

This estimate is based on past events. In 2022, Ghana faced a similar issue. The Energy Ministry stated that 550,000 barrels were needed for thermal generation over 20 days. They noted that gas supply outages would require this amount to support about 850 MW of generation capacity.

Adjusting for volume, the current supply of 450,000 barrels will sustain operations for around 16 days. However, two important factors could change this.

First is the severity of the gas shortfall. If gas supplies are heavily constrained, the crude will be used faster. This could reduce the projected window from 16 days to as few as 12 or 14 days. A milder shortage might allow the fuel to last longer.

Second is rising electricity demand in Ghana. Power consumption was at 22,478 GWh in 2022 and is projected to rise by 14% in 2025 to reach about 25,836 GWh. Higher demand means faster fuel consumption rates.

This makes it unlikely that the current stockpile will last a full 16 days under normal conditions. Timely delivery of additional fuel is essential.

Of Ghana's thermal plants, which generate about 70% of total power output, eight rely on light crude oil during gas supply disruptions. Continuous procurement before June 4 is crucial to avoid load shedding.

If gas supplies are not restored quickly, Ghana will need more barrels and funds to secure them consistently. Liquid fuel costs more than natural gas and may strain resources further.