Ghana’s current account surplus to improve to 5.1% of GDP by end of 2025 – Absa report forecasts

Ghana's current account surplus may rise to 5.1% of GDP in 2025. This is an increase from last year's 4.3%. The forecast comes from the Absa Cedi Report released in May 2025.

The report suggests that Ghana can build reserves through gold and cocoa exports. It predicts increased production due to new mines and favorable weather for farmers.

“Given these developments, we expect the current account surplus to improve,” it stated.

The report is optimistic about Ghana's export of gold and cocoa. Recently, the cedi appreciated significantly, rising to GH₵12.40 per dollar from GH₵15.50.

“We believe export receipts will benefit from strong gold and cocoa prices,” it added.

Ghana is well-positioned to gain from gold exports as new mines open. Several new mines, including Cardinal-Namdini and Ahafo South, are set to start production in 2025.

“This could help Ghana increase its gold output,” the report noted. Gold is not affected by U.S tariffs, making it a stable commodity.

“The yellow metal is exempt from recent U.S tariffs,” it explained. Global trade uncertainty has led investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold, pushing prices to USD3,300 per barrel recently.

On cocoa production, the report cautioned about potential bad weather impacts. Ivory Coast may face significant challenges due to volatile conditions.

“Output in West Africa could be smaller this year,” it warned. However, rainfall levels have been consistent in Ghana, leading to improved crop yields after last year's low output.