Ivory Coast’s mid-crop cocoa output expected to drop around 40% due to long drought, exporters say

Ivory Coast’s cocoa mid-crop output is expected to decline by around 40% this season due to an unusually long dry spell and limited rainfall, exporters and pod counters have reported.

The mid-crop season, running from April 1 to September 30, is crucial for global cocoa supply. However, inconsistent and inadequate rainfall in key growing regions has negatively impacted bean quality and yield.

According to five pod counters and five exporters, cocoa production is projected to range between 280,000 and 300,000 metric tons, a sharp drop from last season’s 500,000 tons. Over the past decade, Ivory Coast has averaged 550,000 tons annually, according to the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC).

“The prolonged drought from November until now is unprecedented and has had catastrophic consequences,” one exporter told Reuters.

The dry conditions have delayed bean maturity, pushing back arrivals at ports. Normally, cocoa pods should be visible by November or December, but flowers and small pods (cherelles) are only now beginning to appear in small numbers.

With cocoa flowers requiring about 22 weeks to mature, exporters anticipate that meaningful harvesting activity may only pick up around June. As a result, supply constraints could drive cocoa prices higher in the coming months.