Trump's tariffs and future of U.S.-African trade

Mikatekiso Kubayi is a senior researcher at the Institute for Global Dialogue. He also works with UNISA and Zhejiang Normal University. In a recent interview, he discussed U.S.-African trade and its future.

**Emerging Trade Wars**

Kubayi described the trade war with China as part of a larger agenda. This agenda aims to restore American greatness under the Trump administration. The tariffs on various products show the administration's ambition.

He noted that while the world watches U.S. actions, Africa remains overlooked. The administration often shows disdain for less powerful nations. However, African countries can still shape beneficial development relationships.

**Changing Geopolitical Landscape**

The geopolitical landscape is shifting with rising powers in the global south. Some argue this change threatens U.S. dominance, which has been established for decades. Domestic challenges and external threats have led to a focus on national interests.

This shift is not surprising given current global dynamics.

**South Africa's Economic Uncertainty**

South Africa's economic relations with the U.S. are dynamic and complex. The EU has faced tariffs despite its close ties to America. South Africa, viewed contemptuously by the previous administration, faces similar challenges.

Despite these issues, there are opportunities for mutually beneficial relations between South Africa and the U.S.

**Trade Expansion within AGOA**

The BRICS bloc does not advocate for de-dollarization but seeks reform in global governance. They aim for equitable representation of all nations' interests in decision-making processes.

If countries can trade using their currencies, they will do so to advance development goals. Many South African products are traded outside AGOA, which is a unilateral arrangement by the U.S.

AGOA’s status is always under review, but trade will continue regardless of it.

**Impact of USAID Suspension**

If the U.S. completely shuts its doors to South Africa through AGOA discontinuation, new relations must be formed carefully. While AGOA provides access, it isn't South Africa's only trading avenue with America.

The loss of financial support from USAID would impact crucial social programs in Africa significantly.

**Opportunities Amid Instability**

Africa faces risks and opportunities amid ongoing instability regarding trade and investment. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) focuses on integration and development without external influence.

Despite declining official development assistance globally, AfCFTA continues to progress as an essential initiative for African growth and cooperation.