Chance of asteroid hitting Moon increases slightly

A large asteroid is now more likely to hit the Moon, according to NASA.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered with a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032. NASA has reduced that chance to just 0.004%.

However, the likelihood of it impacting the Moon on December 22, 2032, has increased. The chance has risen from 1.7% to 3.8%. This update comes from data collected by telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope.

NASA stated there is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon. Even if it does hit, it would not change the Moon's orbit.

The James Webb Space Telescope also helped estimate the asteroid's size. It is believed to be between 53 and 67 meters wide, similar to a ten-story building.

Since its discovery in December through a telescope in Chile, many other objects have passed closer to Earth than the Moon. Smaller objects may have hit or burned up in our atmosphere without being noticed.

Although unlikely, a lunar impact could provide a unique opportunity for observation and study of how the Moon reacts.

Professor Mark Burchell from the University of Kent called it "a great experiment." He noted that telescopes would certainly see it, and binoculars might as well.

The James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid again next month for further analysis.